000 AXNT20 KNHC 151035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N30W to 021N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-04N between 35W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from near Apalachicola, Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front this morning, mainly within 60 nm of the Florida coast. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong northerly winds over the western Gulf, west of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft in this area. An analysis from yesterday indicated moderate smoke from agricultural fires across much of the southwest and south central Gulf. The northerly flow may be improving visibility a little off the coast of Veracruz, but southerly flow off the Yucatan Peninsula is continuing to bring smoke into the south central Gulf. The front will continue drifting southeast and will reach Sarasota Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late today. The front will begin to stall and weaken from southwestern Florida to 25N87W late Thu, before dissipating through Fri. A weaker cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm front Sat night ahead of yet another front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest and south central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extending from the north central Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off Colombia this morning, as verified by earlier scatterometer satellite data and a recent ship observation. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in that area. Fresh to strong winds are likely along the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras as well. Generally moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. An analysis from yesterday indicated dense smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America was probably extendingacross much of the northwest Caribbean, west of 90W. The E to SE winds may be mitigating some of the impact from eastern Honduras to the Cayman Islands, but it is likely dense smoke is lingering in the Gulf of Honduras and northward along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. A very dry pattern persists across the basin, and regional radar is showing only isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Thu. Winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish through late week as high pressure north of area weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered over the north central Atlantic near 36N46N through the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly wind are ongoing north of 28N and west of 70W, between the ridge and a cold front over the northeast Gulf that is slowly approaching the area. Seas in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were active earlier off northeast Florida, but have since diminished. Thunderstorms are ongoing however just north of the area over the Gulf Stream, off the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Elsewhere moderate E to SE winds are noted west of 70W with seas 4 to 6 ft in open waters. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today, reach from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida late today, from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Thu, then move east of the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on Thu. A ridge extending along 30N Sat will start to drift south Sun ahead of another front approaching the area through early next week. Farther east, a weakening cold front reaches from 32N27W to 28N40W, then is a dissipating stationary front to 23N55W. Fresh to strong NE winds were evident earlier on the west side of the front, but these winds are diminishing. Seas to 8 ft linger near 29N55W, but will likewise subside through the morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the waters off northeast Africa, north of 28N. $$ Christensen