000 AXNT20 KNHC 141714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N and east of 30W, while scattered showers are noted south of 07N and west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 30N84W to 25N93W to 25N97W. A pre-frontal trough was analyzed from 30N83W to 28N85W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough and the front, mainly east of 90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds prevailing north of the front, while light to gentle southerly winds are noted south of the front. To the southwest, a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 21N94W. An area of moderate southeasterly winds prevail east of the low from 20N- 25N between 88W-92W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the basin. The frontal boundary will begin to move today across the Gulf waters as a second push of cold air reaches the area. The front will move across the basin through Thursday, then become stationary on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move over the northern Gulf by Fri night, then stall and lift northward as a warm front by late Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the south central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the northwest Caribbean. With this, gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted across the basin, pulsing to fresh at night and early morning. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the area. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted over the Caribbean at this time, but fast-moving isolated showers are noted on regional radar over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. High pressure north of the area will continue to support the pulses of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and Honduras through mid week. Winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish through late week as high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires may limit visibility at times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cluster of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is ongoing north of 28N and west of 74W ahead of a cold front, currently north of the area. Winds and seas may be higher near these thunderstorms, and frequent lightning is observed from recent satellite data. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in this area, with seas of 6-8 ft. Farther east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from 31N37W to 28N40W, then continues as a stationary front from that point to 22N55W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are ongoing within 240 nm west of the front. These winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the front weakens. The cold front previously mentioned will move off the northeast Florida coast on Wed, reaching from 31N73W to South Florida by Thu morning, and from 28N65W to the Straits of Florida by Thu night, then stall along 25N on Fri, and lift northward while weakening through Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on Thu. A surface ridge extending along 30N will start to drift south this weekend ahead of the next front approaching the area through early next week. $$ ERA