000 AXNT20 KNHC 141036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 06N between 14W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to Tampico Mexico. A prefrontal surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend area in the northeast Gulf to 21N94W in the southwest Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are active in a line along and between the front and the trough across the northeast and north central Gulf. Fresh southerly winds are noted over the south central Gulf, with mostly moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf this morning. An analysis from yesterday showed smoke from agricultural fires over the Yucatan peninsula continue to impact the south central Gulf, but conditions seemed to have improved over the southwest Gulf due to northerly flow. The front will drift slowly eastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz Mexico by late Wed. The front will continue to drift southward and reach from southwestern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Thu, before becoming stationary and weakening through Fri. Another cold front is expected to move over the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall and lift northward as a warm front Sat night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will probably continue to reduce visibility at times over the south central Gulf, and increasingly over the southwest Gulf by late in the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the northwest Caribbean is supporting pulses of fresh to strong easterly winds off Honduras and Colombia this morning, with 8 to 10 ft seas in these areas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere, with generally 5 to 7 ft seas. An analysis from yesterday determined smoke from agricultural fires was limiting visibility from the coast of Honduras to the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted over the Caribbean this morning, but fast-moving scattered showers are noted on regional radar in the trade wind flow across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands, with isolated showers over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. For the forecast, winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish from mid through late week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires will probably continue to limit visibility at times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cluster of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is ongoing north of 30N between 75W and 80W. This activity is over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and is ahead of a surface trough and frontal boundary well to the west over the northeast Gulf, drifting eastward. Much of the upper dynamics supporting this thunderstorm activity is lifting northward, and this activity is diminishing south of 32N. Winds and seas may be higher near these thunderstorms, and frequent lightning is observed from recent satellite data. Fresh southerly winds and seas 6 to 8 ft are also noted north of 27N and west of 70W, but this is also starting to subside. These winds are observed between the trough to the west, and a surface ridge reaching from the central Atlantic through the central Bahamas. Southerly wind and seas will increase again, as the cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico moves slowly eastward and eventually moves off the northeast Florida coast Wed. The front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Thu, stall along 25N early Fri, then lift northward as a warm front while weakening through Fri night. A ridge extending along 30N Sat will start to drift south Sat night ahead of another front approaching the area through early next week. Farther east, another cold front is analyzed from 32N38W to 20N60W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are ongoing within 240 nm west of the front. These winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the front starts to stall and dissipate. $$ Christensen