000 AXNT20 KNHC 140534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 07N between 11W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A prefrontal surface trough extends from N Florida near 30N82W to 26N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered moderate convection is over NE Mexico from 24N-26N between 96W-99W. The front and trough are expected to merge Tue, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Wed. The cold front will reach from southwestern Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, then become stationary and weaken Thu night into Fri. Another cold front is expected to move over the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall by Sat night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and SW of Puerto Rico. A surface trough is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-20N between 88W-90W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Colombia through Wed, pulsing to near gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse each night this week near the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish mid through late week as high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires may limit visibility at times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the region at 30N42W and extends southwestward to 26N46W to 21N60W. Scattered showers are N of 22N between 40W-52W. Otherwise, a cold front coming off the coast of Georgia tonight is supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 29N and W of 73W. Strong southerly winds will persist offshore of Florida tonight ahead of the cold front that is expected to stall near the coast overnight through Tue. Strong thunderstorms are likely to continue ahead of this front over the next couple days. The front will begin advancing again by mid-week, with a cold front expected to reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Thu. The front will stall roughly N of 25N Thu night into early Fri, then lift northward as a warm front while weakening Fri into Fri night. Another cold front is expected to move into the northern waters Sat and Sat night. $$ Formosa