000 AXNT20 KNHC 140005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 01N29W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 03N-08N between 10W and 63W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near 28N86W. From there, the boundary transitions to a surface trough that continues to 25N90W. Behind that frontal boundary, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low off the coast of Mississippi to NE Mexico near 24N98W. Both total and low level precipitable water imagery show a plume of moisture traversing the Gulf of Mexico into the northern Florida Peninsula, which is supporting scattered showers in the NE gulf. Otherwise, a surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche with no convection associated with it. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are behind the cold front while S to SW winds of the same speed are across the eastern half of the basin. The fronts are expected to merge by Tue, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Wed. The cold front will reach from southwestern Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, then become stationary and weaken Thu night into Fri. Another cold front is expected to move over the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall by Sat night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure north of the area continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the basin. The exceptions are strong breeze easterlies just north of Colombia, the entrance of the Gulf of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras. Peaks seas north of Colombia are near 11 ft and over the Gulf of Honduras near 9 ft. A middle to upper level high over the Caribbean is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across the region. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Colombia through Wed, pulsing to near gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse each night this week near the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish mid through late week as high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland agricultural fires may limit visibility at times off the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the region at 30N44W and extends southwestward to 26N50W where the boundary transitions into a stationary front to 21N67W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 24N between 43W and 52W. Otherwise, a cold front coming off the coast of Georgia this evening is supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 29N in the NW and nprth-central offshore waters. Strong southerly winds will persist offshore of Florida tonight ahead of the cold front that is expected to stall near the coast overnight through Tue. Strong thunderstorms are likely to continue ahead of this front over the next couple days. The front will begin advancing again by mid-week, with a cold front expected to reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Thu. The front will stall roughly N of 25N Thu night into early Fri, then lift northward as a warm front while weakening Fri into Fri night. Another cold front is expected to move into the northern waters Sat and Sat night. $$ Ramos