000 AXNT20 KNHC 130912 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 512 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N- 08N between 15W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N91W to 1006 mb low pressure centered near Poza Rica Mexico near 21N98W. A stronger cold front is inland over coastal Texas moving southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are active in the coastal waters of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible early this morning in the coastal waters of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Strong to near gale force southerly flow is noted over much of the eastern Gulf, between the low pressure and front in the western Gulf, and strong high pressure farther east over the Atlantic. Moderate northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over much of the western Gulf currently. The two fronts will merge tonight and reach from the northeast Gulf to west central Gulf. The merged front will continue to slowly drift south Tue, reaching from southwest Florida to near Veracruz Mexico through mid-week before stalling then dissipating from the Florida keys to the southwest Gulf Thu. Another weak front may approach the northwest Gulf Fri. Meanwhile, increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Honduras will continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure is centered north of the area over the western Atlantic. 1010 mb low pressure is centered over northeast Colombia, and pressure is falling over the western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient over the Caribbean is tight enough with this pattern to support strong to near gale force off Colombia, and strong winds as well off Honduras. Seas in these areas are reaching 8 to 10 ft. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorm were active off the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica, but these have been diminishing lately. Isolated showers embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the Leeward Islands, northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Smoke from agricultural fires onshore may be limiting visibility off Honduras, Belize, and Mexico. The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia to again tonight. Winds and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 32N45W to very weak 1019 mb low pressure near 26N52W, then westward toward the southern Bahamas. The southern portion of this front is slowing and weakening. The front breaks up a strong ridge extending along roughly 38N. A small area of thunderstorms are noted near the center of the low pressure, but otherwise no significant thunderstorm activity is observed over the western Atlantic. Strong to near gale SE to S winds are ongoing mainly north of 27N and west of 75W, or north of the northern Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible this morning over the coastal waters off northeast Florida. The strong winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and a pair of cold fronts approaching from the west. The fronts will merge, then stall inland tonight. The merged front will start to move again by mid- week, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by Thu night, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds along the front between 45W and 50W will diminish as well. Beginning on Fri, the western part of the front will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front, while the remainder of the front shifts east of the area. Another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest forecast waters Fri night. Farther east over the eastern Atlantic, a persistent surface trough northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining fresh to strong NE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas from 22N to 29N between 25W and 30W. Elsewhere, mostly moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted except for near the monsoon trough. $$ Christensen