000 AXNT20 KNHC 130518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W SW to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 34W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. The front is void of precipitation and has only 10 kt northerly winds behind the front. A stronger cold front is inland over central Texas moving SE. Elsewhere the surface pressure gradient is rather tight over the eastern Gulf E OF 90W where 15-30 kt southerly winds are noted. Strongest winds are S of the Florida Panhandle. The cold front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early today, as another cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week and from the Florida keys to near 24N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu. Otherwise, increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Honduras will continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands moving W with the trade winds. Middle to upper level ridging continue to support dry air subsidence and stable conditions across most of the basin, except for the SW Caribbean where the Pacific equatorial trough and difluence aloft support heavy showers and tstms over northern Panama adjacent waters. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Winds and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 37N63W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N48W and extends SW to a 1020 mb low near 27N52W. The cold front continues to the southern Bahamas near 22N71W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm E of the front, E of 60W. A 1034 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 40N30W. Southerly winds will significantly increase tonight through Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall along the coast tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead this next front. This second front will start to move again by mid-week, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by Thu night. Beginning on Fri, the western part of the front will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front, while the remainder of the front shifts east of the area. Yet another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest forecast waters on Fri night. $$ Formosa