000 AXNT20 KNHC 130001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04N26W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the coast of Liberia, Africa and from 0N to 05N between 34W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico waters ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast tonight. Low level precipitable water imagery show a plume of moisture across the NW basin, which along middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers over the NE Mexico adjacent waters. Latest surface observations over the NW Gulf show hazy and dense fog conditions extending to Alabama coastal waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds are over just about the entire basin, except in the central Gulf where stronger southerly winds to near gale force are occuring. The cold front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week and from the Florida keys to near 24N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu. Otherwise, increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Honduras will continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level ridging continue to support dry air subsidence and stable conditions across most of the basin, except for the SW Caribbean where the Pacific equatorial trough and difluence aloft support heavy showers and tstms over northern Panama adjacent waters. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Winds and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is in the central Atlc waters extending from 30N50W to 24N60W to 22N74W. Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers and isolated tstms ahead of the front to 44W N of 24N. Surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlc waters and supports fair weather. Southerly winds will significantly increase tonight through Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead this next front. This second front will start to move again by mid-week, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by Thu night. Beginning on Fri, the western part of the front will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front, while the remainder of the front shifts east of the area. Yet another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest forecast waters on Fri night. $$ Ramos