000 AXNT20 KNHC 121747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04N28W to 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of both axes. GULF OF MEXICO... A northward-moving warm front that extended from Mobile Alabama to Clearwater Florida at 1200 UTC has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle as of 1500 UTC. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are along the Gulf Coast between Houston and Pensacola. Fresh to strong S winds cover most of the Gulf, with the exception of the central Gulf where a recent ASCAT pass depicted a large swath of southerly winds to near gale force. In addition, central Gulf buoy 42001 located at 26N90W is reporting south winds of 30 kt. A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast this afternoon. The cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the SW Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and early Mon over the north- central and northeast Gulf ahead of the reinforcing front. The fronts will merge, then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week and from the Florida Keys to near 24N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu. Meanwhile, increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is likely to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over Caribbean, keeping dry air in place. Isolated showers are near the coast of Panama and Colombia. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean from 10N-16N between 66W-77W, locally near gale off the coast of Colombia. Strong SE winds are seen in the Gulf of Honduras northward through the Yucatan Channel. Moderate winds are seen elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Winds and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 32N49W and extends to a weak 1019 mb low near 29N55W. The cold front continues from the low to 23N68W. A stationary front continues from 23N68W to 24N78W. Scattered moderate convection is near the low and front, from 24N-32N between 43W-60W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that fresh NE winds are within 300 nm north of the front between 55W-73W. A 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 33N68W. Farther east, a surface trough is producing scattered showers in the vicinity of 22N-28N between 21W-30W. Strong NE winds are seen north of 26N between 23W-31W. The stationary front from near 23N68W to 24N78W will dissipate this afternoon. Southerly winds will significantly increase today through Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead this next front offshore the Carolinas through northern Florida Mon into Tue. The front will start to move again by mid-week and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Thu. $$ Hagen