814 AXNT20 KNHC 121039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-08N between 13W- 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is moving northward through the northwest and north central Gulf this morning. Buoy data from the central Gulf confirms strong southerly winds follow the cold front in that area, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft in the far eastern Gulf. Regional radar showed a few showers off the Texas coast earlier, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time over the Gulf. Warm, moist air is flowing northward behind the warm front over slightly cooler water in the northwest and north central Gulf. Offshore platforms in those areas indicate areas of fog, reducing the visibility to 2 to 4 nm. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is probably lingering over the southwest Gulf, limiting visibility there to 3 to 5 nm. For the forecast, the front will move north of the area late this morning ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast this afternoon. Fog over the northwest and north central GUlf will lift as drier air associated with the front moves into the area. The cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week and from the Florida keys to near 24N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu. Meanwhile, increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is likely continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. The main forecast issue over the next couple days will continue be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that will precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... 1023 mb high pressure is centered north of the area over the western Atlantic between Bermuda and the northern Bahamas. 1006 mb low pressure is centered over northern Colombia. The pressure gradient between these two features is tight enough to support fresh to strong winds off higher terrain along the coasts of Colombia and Honduras. Seas in these areas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft. Moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Radar displays across the region show a few showers in the trade wind flow over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted over the water. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will continue to maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia tonight through late Mon. Winds and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N52W to the southern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. 1023 mb high pressure is centered north of the front near 30N70W. Buoy data indicates fresh SE winds on the western periphery of the high pressure, from the northern Bahamas to the northeast Florida coast. Northerly swell with seas of 6 to 9 ft follows within 240 nm of the front, north of 26N. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft in the open waters east of the Bahamas. The front is starting to stall and will dissipate through late today. Southerly winds will increase today through Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead this next front. This second front will start to move again by mid-week and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Thu. Farther east, a trough east of the Canary Islands continues to disrupt the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This pattern is maintaining generally moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical eastern Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Higher seas to 9 ft are estimated to be west of the trough, north of 25N between 25W-30W. $$ Christensen