000 AXNT20 KNHC 120507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-07N between 15W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. A warm front continues to 26N86W to S of Houston Texas near 29N95W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf. Fresh E to E-SE winds cover most of the NW and north-central Gulf, near and to the north of the warm front. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The warm front will continue to lift north tonight, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. This next cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as a reinforcing cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that will precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from Sun into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1006 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly inland over N Colombia from 05N-11N between 72W-77W. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge extending from the central Atlantic SW to just north of Hispaniola has been displaced southward by an Atlantic cold front north of the area moving slowly through the Florida Straits and the central Bahamas. Weak ridging from the central Atlantic to the northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build starting Sun across the basin as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N71W. A cold front extends from 31N53W to 23N66W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 50W-56W. A 1034 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 41N28W. ASCAT data shows fresh winds within 120 nm either side of the front. Moderate NE to E winds are north of the front between 66W-80W including over the Bahamas. The W Atlantic front will stall and weaken roughly along 24N Sun. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead this next front. This second front will start to move again by mid-week and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Thu. $$ Formosa