000 AXNT20 KNHC 112329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N34W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 08W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has stalled across the northern Florida Keys and extends NW across the Gulf as a lifting warm front to 27N90W to the Texas coast near Matagorda. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico north of the warm front from 26.5N-29N. Fresh E to E-SE winds cover most of the NW and north-central Gulf, near and to the north of the warm front. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. This next cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as a reinforcing cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that will precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from Sun into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. A sfc ridge extending from the central Atlantic SW to just north of Hispaniola has been displaced southward by an Atlantic cold front north of the area moving slowly through the Florida Straits and the central Bahamas. This displacement is creating a modest pressure gradient along the coast of Venezuela and northeast Colombia where recent scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly south of 15N between 64W- 75W. Fresh E to SE winds are also pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere. Weak ridging from the central Atlantic to the northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week across the basin as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure is just offshore of the coast of the Carolinas near 32.5N76W, and behind a cold front over the Atlantic. The cold front extends from 31N56W to 26N65W to the northern Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly east of 65W and north of 24N. Late morning ASCAT data showed fresh winds within 120 nm either side of the front, mainly east of 66W. Moderate NE to E winds are north of the front between 66W-80W including over the Bahamas. The portion of the cold front from 26N65W to the Florida Keys will stall and weaken roughly along 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. The portion of the front east of 65W will continue to move east through the next couple of days before stalling and dissipating early next week near 45W. Southerly winds will increase Sun through Mon off Florida coast, becoming strong to near gale force off of NE Florida Sun night, ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this next front. This second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida through mid-week. Farther east, a 1018 mb low is near 29N25W. Strong winds to 30 kt are occurring across the NW semicircle of this low. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring across the eastern semicircle of this low. The low will move SW while weakening over the next 24 hr. $$ Stripling