000 AXNT20 KNHC 111654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N36W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 08W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 11/1500 UTC this morning, a cold front passes through the Florida Keys near Marathon Florida to 25N85W. A warm front continues from 25N85W to the coast of Texas just south of Corpus Christi to 30N100W. Scattered showers are over the Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N. Fresh winds cover most of the NW and north-central Gulf, near and to the north of the warm front. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The warm front will continue to lift north today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. This cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be the potential for strong or even severe thunderstorms that will precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from Sun into Mon. Marine interests in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. A sfc ridge extending from the central Atlantic into the northeast Caribbean has been displaced southward by a cold front north of the area moving through the Florida Straits and the Bahamas. This displacement is creating a pressure gradient along the coast of Venezuela and northeast Colombia where recent scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly south of 15N between 65W-77W. Fresh E to SE winds are also pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere. For the forecast, ridging from the central Atlantic into the northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week across the basin as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure is along the coast of the Carolinas behind a cold front over the Atlantic. The cold front extends from 32N56W to 26N65W to Marathon in the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of front, mainly east of 68W and north of 24N. West of 68W, isolated showers are along and within 90 nm north of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds within 120 nm either side of the front, mainly east of 66W. Moderate winds are north of the front between 66W-80W including over the Bahamas. The portion of the cold front from 26N65W to Marathon Florida will stall and weaken roughly along 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. The portion of the front east of 65W will continue to move east through the next couple of days before stalling and dissipating early next week near 45W. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this next front. This second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida through mid-week. Farther east, a 1018 mb low is near 30N25W. Strong to near-gale winds are in the NW semicircle of this low. Isolated to scattered showers are in the area. The low will move SW while weakening over the next 24 hr. $$ Hagen