000 AXNT20 KNHC 111019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are observed from 02N-04N between 14W-20W, and from 03N-06N between 25W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers are observed on regional radar displays over the northwest Gulf this morning. This activity is just north of a stalling cold front reaching across the central Gulf from southwest Florida to south Texas. Observations from buoys and platforms, along with earlier scatterometer data indicate fresh NE to E winds over much of the northern Gulf, north of the front. Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft. gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility to 3 to 5 nm over the far southwest Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, the western half of the front will lift north today as a warm front, ahead of another cold front moving off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly flow and building seas will follow the front. The second front will stall from the Florida Big Bend area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as a reinforcing cold front moves off the Texas coast. The main forecast issue over the next two to three days will be the potential for strong or even severe thunderstorms that will precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf. Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle from late Sat into Mon. Marine interests these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings from local NWS offices for more information. Looking ahead, the fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extending from the north central Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean has been displaced southward by a cold front north of the area moving through Florida and the Bahamas. This displacement is increasing the pressure gradient along the coast of Venezuela and northeast Colombia where earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong trade winds, locally near gale force off Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Fresh E to SE winds are also pulsing off the coast of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. The atmosphere remains fairly dry, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. For the forecast, ridging from the central Atlantic into the northeast Caribbean will maintain small areas of fresh to strong winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Sun, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week across the basin as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from just east of Bermuda through the northern Bahamas to the upper Florida Keys. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms were active over the northern Bahamas along the front, but this activity has largely dissipated in the past several hours. Showers and thunderstorms are still active within 240 nm east of the front north of 25N. Strong SW winds are also noted in this area, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh NW winds follow the front north of 27N with 5 to 8 ft seas in northerly swell. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters east of the Bahamas. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this next front. This second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida through mid-week. The portion of the front from 25N- 32N will continue to move east through the couple of days before stalling and dissipating early next week near 45W. Farther east, the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is currently being disrupted by a low pressure area south of the Azores along roughly 32N. This pattern is maintaining moderate trade winds farther south with 5 to 7 ft seas. Stronger winds are active off northwest Africa near Cap Blanc, with 6 to 9 ft seas. $$ Christensen