000 AXNT20 KNHC 110601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W,to 07N16W and 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N30W, 01N40W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward from 40W eastward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 08N southward between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 26N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues along 26N, to 25N/26N near the coastal border areas of south Texas and NE Mexico. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to the stationary front between 95W and 99W inland in Mexico. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation also are in the same area. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere, from the frontal boundary northward, from 86W westward. Strong south winds and building seas will follow the western half of the current frontal boundary. The western half of the current frontal boundary is forecast to move northward and out of the area, as a warm front, through Sunday. A new cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf late on Sunday. A second and stronger cold front will approach the NW Gulf of Mexico late on Monday. It is possible that scattered rainshowers, and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede the second and stronger cold front. The new front and the stronger cold front will merge, and then continue to drift slowly southward. The merged front will reach from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. It is possible that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb shows an upper level ridge, that extends from NW Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean, near 11N90W, about 200 nm to the W of Nicaragua. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Greater Antilles, to 18N83W, into the Gulf of Honduras. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds, that are spread out across the area. Relatively weak high pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through Saturday. Expect gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. The winds and seas will build early next week, as high pressure strengthens to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, about 60 nm to the west of Bermuda, to the NW Bahamas, beyond SE Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the SE of the cold front, from Andros Island in the Bahamas toward the east and northeast. Bermuda reported 0.02 inches of rain during the last 24 hours, as of 11/0000 UTC. A dissipating cold front curves away from a 1019 mb low pressure center that is near 32N25W, to 0N22W, 29N30W, and to 30N32W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N northward between 20W and 30W. An upper level trough is apparent in water vapor imagery, and according to the GFS model, long 31N41W to 19N50W, to Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward between 40W and 45W. The current cold front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida overnight. The wind speeds will diminish, as the front stalls and weakens along roughly 25N, through the central Bahamas on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase late on Sunday and Monday, off northeast Florida. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast on Monday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this next cold front. The second front will stall from 31N77W to central Florida through mid- week. $$ mt