000 AXNT20 KNHC 101649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1249 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 06N18W to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from 04N26W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ, west of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Clearwater Florida to 27N90W to south Texas near 26.5N98W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are along and within 120 nm north of the front. Elsewhere, a weak 1008 mb low near 20N97W extends a sfc trough from the low to 25N89W. Isolated showers are possible NW of the trough. Fresh northerly winds are occurring over the northern Gulf near and behind the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be reducing visibility to 4 to 6 nm over the southwest Gulf. The cold front will stall across the central Gulf by late tonight. trong south winds and building seas will follow the western half of this front over the western and central Gulf as it lifts N of the area as a warm front through Sun ahead of a second cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front will move off the Texas coast late Sun, followed by a stronger cold front early Mon. Scattered showers and strong to possibly severe tstorms may precede this front. The fronts will merge, then continue to drift south, reaching from SW Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak 1014 mb high pressure over the Cayman Islands is maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin, except for off the coast of South America and in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh winds are pulsing. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of moderate to fresh winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W...a cold front extends from 32N71W to Cape Canaveral Florida, moving southeast. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are along and behind the front. Fresh to strong winds are seen on on the latest scatterometer data north of 27N between 60W and 65W. These winds are likely diminishing however as high pressure to the north weakens ahead of the advancing front. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 32N71W to Cape Canaveral will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida tonight. Winds will diminish as the front stalls and weakens along roughly 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off the coast Mon night. The second front will stall from near 31N77W to central Florida through mid-week. Farther east, a sfc trough extends from 26N46W to 21N65W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Upper-level divergence east of a weak upper-level trough is enhancing scattered showers from 25N-31N between 43W-49W. A 1020 mb low near 33N26W extends a cold front to 31N24W to 29N26W. Scattered showers are north of 28N between 19W-28W. Fresh to strong winds will accompany this low in its southern semicircle as it drifts to near 31N27W Sat morning. Expect strong N winds off the coast of Morocco to increase to near-gale tonight and maintain that strength through the weekend. $$ Hagen