000 AXNT20 KNHC 100955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea- Bissau near 11N13W to 05N18W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-03N between 21W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-04N between 42W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends along the north Gulf coast from near Mobile Bay, Alabama to Galveston Bay, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the front, mainly off the Alabama and Mississippi coasts, and along the northern Texas coast. Weak high pressure covers the remainder of the Gulf, with little shower or thunderstorm activity noted. Fresh northerly winds are likely occurring long the northern Gulf coast near the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in most areas. Platforms in the northwest Gulf report fog and haze with visibilities 6 nm or greater. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be reducing visibility to 4 to 6 nm over the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front entering the northern Gulf will stall across the central Gulf tonight. Strong southerly winds and building seas will follow the western half this front over the western and central Gulf as it lifts north of the area as a warm front through Sun ahead of another front approaching the northwest Gulf. The second front move off the Texas coast late Sun, followed by a weak reinforcing front early Mon. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid week. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak 1014 mb high pressure over central Cuba is maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 seas across the basin this morning, except for off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh winds are pulsing. Seas are probably 4 to 6 ft off Colombia. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of moderate to fresh winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W...a cold front is just north of the area extending across the western Atlantic to just north of the Florida-Georgia border, moving east at 10-15 kt. Fresh to strong winds were evident on earlier scatterometer data north of 28N between 60W and 65W. These winds are likely diminishing however as high pressure to the north weakens ahead of the advancing front. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds persist with 3 to 5 ft seas in the open waters east of the Bahamas. No significant shower or thunderstorms activity is noted. For the forecast, the A cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida tonight. Winds will diminish as the front stalls and weakens along roughly 25N through the central Bahamas Sun. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off the coast Mon night. The second front will stall from 31N77W to central Florida through mid week. Farther east, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N39W, maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas. Strong winds are evident off the coast of northwest Africa with 7 to 10 ft seas. $$ Christensen