000
AXNT20 KNHC 091634
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 
04N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N40W to Brazil near 01S46W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-06N 
between 10W-16W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb high is centered over W Cuba near 22N82W. 10-15 kt 
return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken 
low clouds are along the northern Gulf coast north of 28N. 
Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. 
 
A cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday
night, then stall and weaken across the southern Gulf of Mexico
by Friday night. Southerly winds will increase across the basin 
during this weekend. Another cold front is forecast to reach the 
NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will extend from the 
Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday. It is 
possible that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico 
may reduce the visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in the 
Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 08N76W. Scattered 
showers are over N Colombia, E Panama, and the SW Caribbean. 
10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean, with strongest 
winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds near the
surface high over W Cuba.

High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will support nightly pulses 
of strong ENE winds near the coast of Colombia through the end 
of the week. Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight, then pulse strong each night through the weekend. 
Moderate long-period northerly swell will affect the waters E of
the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sun. 

Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually, across 
parts of Central America and Colombia. Large-scale conditions 
are forecast to become favorable for enhanced convective 
precipitation, from Thursday through the middle of the next 
week. These ingredients appear to be favorable in order to be 
possible to promote locally heavy rainfall in parts of southern 
Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwestern Ecuador, 
during this time period. Western Colombia may receive 1-2 inches
of rain per day, with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches per day, 
for the next 3 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 29N
between 65W-72W due to a cold front N of the area along 33N.
A 1020 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 24N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the E Atlantic N of 28N
between 31W-36W due to an upper level low. A 1022 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 32N22W. 

Strong SW winds are expected over the W Atlantic through tonight.
A cold front will move across the region Fri through Sat night. 
Southerly winds will increase east of Florida Sun through Mon as
a developing low pressure system moves off the eastern U.S. 

$$
Formosa