000
AXNT20 KNHC 090524
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
205 AM Thu Apr 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of 
Guinea near 10N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 
03N26W, 03N39W, crossing the Equator along 44W, to the coast of 
Brazil near 01S45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong 
near Liberia from 04N to 06N between 08W and 10W. Isolated 
moderate elsewhere from 08N southward from 40W eastward, and 
from 10N southward between 40W and 60W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 
Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 
Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N88W. A cold 
front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night, 
then stall and weaken across the southern Gulf of Mexico by 
Friday night. Southerly winds will increase across the basin 
during this weekend. Another cold front is forecast to reach the 
NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will extend from the 
Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday. It is 
possible that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico 
may reduce the visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in the 
Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a ridge that starts near 10N75W 
in northern Colombia, beyond northern sections of Costa Rica, to 
13N90W in the eastern Pacific Ocean, to 13N103W. Broad upper 
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N50W, 
to 18N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico. 
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low 
level to middle level clouds, from 17N to 24N between 60W and 
74W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 16N southward 
from 75W westward, and in the remainder of the area that is from 
75W westward.  

Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually, across 
parts of Central America and Colombia. Large-scale conditions 
are forecast to become favorable for enhanced convective 
precipitation, from Thursday through the middle of the next 
week. These ingredients appear to be favorable in order to be 
possible to promote locally heavy rainfall in parts of southern 
Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwestern Ecuador, 
during this time period. An example is that it is likely that 
western Colombia may receive 1 inch to 2 inches of rain per day, 
with isolated amounts of 3 inches to 4 inches of rain per day, 
for the next 3 days.

High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to 
strong winds near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela, through Thursday night. Fresh winds will pulse each 
night in the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong this weekend. 
Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters that are to 
the east of the Lesser Antilles, from Thursday night through 
Sunday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N42W to 22N50W, to 18N60W, to 
Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered 
clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 400 nm to 600 nm to the east and 
southeast of the surface trough, from 24N northward. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to 400 
nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough from 20N to 
24N from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 
300 nm to the north of the surface trough, between 50W and 
Puerto Rico.

A ridge will dominate the waters S of 27N, while a trough will 
move across the northern waters tonight and Thursday. Expect 
fresh to strong winds, mainly E of the trough axis. A cold front 
will move SE across the region, from Thursday night through 
Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase to the east of 
Florida, from Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly 
reaching gale force N of 30N. 

$$
MT