000 AXNT20 KNHC 082323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM Wed Apr 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near 13N16W to 05N21W, where latest scatterometer data indicates it transitions to the ITCZ axis and continues to 04N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ west of 41W to inland Brazil. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 44W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, is keeping hold of the weather pattern across the basin as a rather strong jet- stream branch rounds the northern periphery of the high pressure over the southern states. Active weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms is riding eastward over the southern states with this jet- stream branch. The high pressure at the surface remains weak as a 1017 mb high center is analyzed over the SE Gulf near 25N85W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally light east to southeast winds throughout, with the exception of the southern part of the central Gulf and the eastern part of the SW Gulf where gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are present. The Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough moved offshore this morning, and as of early this afternoon it extends from near 23N96W to the coast of Mexico at 18N93W. No weather is occurring with this trough. Wave heights throughout are in the low range of 2-4 ft. Surface observations along the coast of Mexico are showing reduced visibilities to 5 miles. This is due to smoke from agricultural fires that are occurring in southern Mexico. The forecast calls for the aforementioned high pressure to be the dominate feature through the next few days. A cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf late Thu night. The front will become stationary and weaken over the southern Gulf Fri night. Fresh northeast winds will follow in behind the front. Southerly winds will increase across the region during the upcoming weekend. The smoke from the agricultural fires in southern Mexico is expected to remain for the next several days leading to reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak high pressure prevails across the basin. In addition, dry air associated with a mid to upper-level ridge over the western Caribbean covers just about the entire area along with the presence of strong northwest to west winds aloft. A band of low- level clouds with embedded scattered showers is affecting Puerto Rico and parts of Hispaniola. This moisture is derived from an as a trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, that lies along a position from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and to just south of Hispaniola. An afternoon Ascat pass highlighted a northeast to east to southeast wind shift across this trough. The gradient between the high pressure and the low pressure center located over north Colombia, is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean. The forecast calls for building high pressure over the SW North Atlantic waters will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly attaining strong speeds by this weekend. The trough that stretches from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and to just south of Hispaniola will lift northward during the next 24 to 48 hours. Long-period northerly swell is forecast to move through the waters east of the Lesser Antilles Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep-layer broad mid to upper troughing is noted over the central Atlantic north of about 19N and between 40W-61W. Broad ridging aloft is to the south of this trough. At the surface, a trough extends from near 32N44W southwestward to 26N50W and to the Puerto Rico. Areas of rain along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident east of the trough to a line from 32N25W to 24N36W and to 22N44W. This activity is under a favorable upper-level diffluent pattern. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere along and near this trough. Isolated showers and small isolated thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward north of about 30N and between 46W-61W supported by a short- wave trough, that is swinging eastward through the central part of the mid to upper trough. A 1018 mb high center is analyzed at 25N65W, with a ridge westward to the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Relatively weak high pressure covers just about the entire area, except in the far eastern Atlantic where a slighter stronger 1018 mb high center is located west of the Canary Islands near 27N25W. A ridge extends from this high center southwestward to near 23N43W. The forecast calls for the high pressure to be more prevalent south of 27N tonight and Thu. A trough will move across the northern waters tonight and Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the trough. A cold front will move southeastward across the region Thu night through Sat, then return back to the north as warm front late. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds along with building wave heights east of Florida Sat night through Sun night, possibly reaching gale force north of 30N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may be possible with this front. $$ Aguirre