157 AXNT20 KNHC 081733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 PM Wed Apr 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ mainly south of 05N and west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high off the SW coast of Florida near 24N84W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 19N94W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, with moderate easterly winds prevailing north of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf late Thu night, then stall and weaken across the southern Gulf Fri night. Southerly winds will increase across the basin this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Like the Gulf of Mexico basin, generally weak high pressure is prevailing across the basin. In addition, dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean and strong winds aloft over the remainder of the Caribbean continue to inhibit deep convection from developing. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean from 18N62W to 10N64W, with no significant convection associated to it. The gradient between the high pressure and the low pressure center located over north Colombia, is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean. A band of low-level clouds with embedded showers is affecting Puerto Rico and parts of Hispaniola. This moisture is derived from an old frontal boundary, now analyzed as a trough. A recent Ascat pass indicates a northeast to east-southeast wind shift across the trough that stretches from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and to just south of Hispaniola. This trough is forecast to lift northward over the next 24 hours. High pressure over the SW Atlantic will continue support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong this weekend. Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters east of the Lesser Antilles Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging spans across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N68W. In the central Atlantic, mid-level trough continues to dig across the area. At the surface, a surface trough extends from 31N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of this trough, mainly north of 23N. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N20W. High pressure will prevail east of Florida today. A surface trough will move across the NW waters tonight and Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of this trough. A cold front will move SE across the region Thu night through Sat night. Southerly winds will increase east of Florida Sat night through Sun nigh, possibly reaching gale force N of 30N. $$ ERA