000 AXNT20 KNHC 080000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM Tue Apr 07 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W, where morning scatterometer data indicated that the ITCZ axis begins and continues to 03N30W to 01N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 00S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm south of the ITCZ axis between 27W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ axis between 35W-42W and also north of the ITCZ axis within 30 nm of a line from 02N39W to 02N45W to 02N51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, is keeping hold of the weather pattern across the basin as a rather strong jet- stream branch rounds the northern periphery of the high pressure over the southern states. Active weather is riding eastward over the southern states with this jet-stream branch. The high pressure at the surface remains weak as a 1019 mb high center is analyzed over the far NE Gulf just northwest of Tampa, Florida. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally light east to southeast winds throughout, with the exception of southern part of the central Gulf and the eastern part of the SW Gulf where gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are present. Wave heights are in the low range of 2-4 throughout, except for slighter higher wave height values of 3-5 ft in the central Gulf area. A faint line of low clouds note on visible imagery extends from near Key West, Florida at 24N82W, northwestward to 26N85W and to near 28N86W as was captured in an Ascat pass. No significant weather is associated to this trough. Dissipating low clouds are over the far NW Gulf and over the SW and western Gulf from 19N to 28N between 93W and 96W. Surface observations along the coast of Mexico are showing reduced visibilities to 5 miles. This is due to smoke from agricultural fires that are occurring in southern Mexico. The occurrence of agricultural fires over southern Mexico and sections of Central America is typical for this time of year. The forecast calls for aforementioned high pressure to be the dominate feature through the next few days. A cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri. The front will become stationary and weaken over the northern or central waters Fri night. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will follow in behind the front. Southerly winds will increase across the region during the upcoming weekend. Patchy fog may form along and just inland the central Texas coast tonight into Wed morning. There exists the possibility that smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico leading to reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Like the Gulf of Mexico basin, generally weak high pressure is present across the Caribbean Sea as the typical Colombia low pressure is situated near 10N74W. In addition, dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean and strong winds aloft over the remainder of the Caribbean continue to inhibit deep convection from developing. The gradient between the high pressure and the low is producing gentle to moderate trade winds across just about the entire Caribbean, except for south of 13N where fresh northeast to east winds were highlighted by an Ascat pass. Satellite imagery shows low-level moisture, in the form of broken low-level cloud lines, advecting from northeast to southwest over the far NE and central Caribbean waters. This moisture is based off an old frontal boundary, now analyzed as a trough, that extends from northeast of the Leeward Islands southwestward to the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring with and near this boundary. This activity is expected to last through Wed. Otherwise, shower activity remains limited to non-existent across the rest of the basin. The forecast calls for building high pressure over the SW North Atlantic waters will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly attaining strong speeds by this weekend. A trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through Wed while lifting northward. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly swell will impact these waters Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the upper-levels broad upper troughing is noted over the central Atlantic north of about 20N and between 40W-62W, while the eastern periphery of the Gulf of Mexico high pressure protrudes eastward to the Bahamas. Broad ridging aloft is to the south of this trough. At the surface, like in the Gulf of Mexico, weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 28N75W. A surface trough, remnants of a previous front, extends from near 21N52W to the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. Isolated showers are possible along and near this trough. Patches of broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds along scattered showers and small isolated thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward north of about 26N and between 47W-58W as a mid to upper-level trough swings eastward over that part of the area. The tail-end of an eastern Atlantic cold front extends southwestward from 32N28W to near 29N32W, where it transitions to a trough southwest to near 23N44W. A mid-level shortwave trough passing across the front and trough in combination with low-level convergence ahead of the front and trough is resulting in scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms to exist within 240 nm east of cold front and within 120 nm east of the trough north of 25N. Scatterometer data passes from today highlighted gentle to moderate winds throughout the area, except for light to gentle winds from 16N to 24N between 41W-65W and also from 21N to 29N west of 65W. Northerly swell continues to propagate through much of the central Atlantic waters bringing wave heights of 8-12 ft north of 25N. The forecast calls for the high pressure centered at 28N75W to shift southeastward through Wed. It will maintain a ridge across the southern waters through Fri. A trough will move across he northern waters Wed night and Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern waters ahead of the trough. A cold front is expected to move southeastward across the SW N Atlantic waters Thu night through Sat night. Southerly winds, of fresh speeds, are forecast to develop east of Florida late Sat night into Sun between low pressure over the southeastern United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. $$ Aguirre