000 AXNT20 KNHC 071729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 00S47W. An area of strong convection is noted along the ITCZ extending out to 100 nm on either side of the boundary. Scattered moderate strong tstorms are seen from 00N to 03N between 43W to 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure is centered near the Florida Keys with a surface trough which extends into the NE Gulf to 29N85W. No significant Activity is seen in the Gulf with this trough. Over the Bay of Campeche, a second trough is seen from 23N91W to 18N93W. Early ASCAT data indicates moderate to locally fresh wind east of the trough and lighter winds in the eastern Gulf. Early altimeter pass indicated seas are running 3-6 ft within these fresh winds, while elsewhere seas remain 3 ft or less. High pressure will build over the NE Gulf today and move southward across the eastern Gulf through Wed night. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Coast Thu and Thu night, move across the northern Gulf waters Fri, then stall and weaken Fri night into Sat. Expect strengthening southerly winds across the Gulf Sat night as low pressure deepens over the SE United States. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are ongoing near the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela between the Colombian low and a high pressure ridge building over the SW N Atlantic. Altimeter pass confirmed seas peaking from 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere over the southern Caribbean, while light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to suppress any convective activity over the basin. Building high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong speeds by this weekend. A trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through Wed while lifting northward. Long- period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly swell will impact these waters late Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low centered over the FL Keys. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Straits of FL and NW Bahamas. Further east, a surface trough extends from 30N30W to 24N41W. Moderate to locally SW fresh winds north of 24N to 30N between 24W-41W. Isolated showers persist near the trough. A 1021 mb high pressure remains across the eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands. In the western Atlantic, High pressure builds anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N75W. Northerly swell remains over much of the central Atlantic water, with 8-12 ft seas found N of 25N. High pressure offshore of Florida will track SE through Wed, then maintain a ridge across the southern waters through late week. A trough will cross the northern waters Wed night and Thu. A cold front is expected to move SE across the SW N Atlantic waters late Thu night through Sat night. $$ MMT