000 AXNT20 KNHC 070957 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 556 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. An area of strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 04N between 20W and 24W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 25N85W, where it transitions to a warm front and continues to 29N94W. Recent oil platform reports indicate some areas of fog south of this front over the NW Gulf, with visibilities generally 3-5 nm. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across most of the basin, except for some fresh winds noted in overnight scatterometer data near the northern Yucatan coast. An earlier altimeter pass indicates seas are running 3-6 ft within these fresh winds, while elsewhere seas remain 3 ft or less. A warm front lifting across the north-central Gulf will weaken and move inland later today into tonight. High pressure will build over the NE Gulf today and pass southward across the eastern Gulf through Wed night. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Coast Thu and Thu night, move across the northern Gulf waters Fri, then stall and weaken Fri night into Sat. Expect strengthening southerly winds across the Gulf Sat night as low pressure deepens over the SE United States. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are ongoing near the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela between the Colombian low and a high pressure ridge building over the SW N Atlantic. Seas likely peak around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere over the southern Caribbean, while light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to suppress any convective activity over the basin. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong speeds by this weekend. A low pressure trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through tonight. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly swell will impact these waters late Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Moderate to locally fresh winds continue off the coast of southern Florida, north of a stationary front that extends through the Straits of Florida to near Andros Island. Isolated showers persist near the front between the Florida Keys and Andros Island. High pressure is building across the rest of the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N73W. A trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic from 21N51W to the USVI near 18N65W. Another central Atlantic trough extends from 31N30W to 24N42W, with scattered shower activity noted within 150 nm SE of this trough. A high pressure ridge persists across the eastern Atlantic, with 1021 mb high pressure centered W-SW of the Canary Islands near 27N23W. Northerly swell remains over much of the central Atlantic waters this morning, with 8-14 ft seas found N of 25N between 35W and 50W. The stationary front referenced above will weaken today and dissipate by tonight. High pressure offshore of Florida will track SE through Wed, then maintain a ridge across the southern offshore waters through late week. A low pressure trough will cross the northern offshore waters Wed night and Thu. A cold front is expected to move SE across the SW N Atlantic waters late Thu night through Sat night. $$ B Reinhart