000 AXNT20 KNHC 070545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. An area of strong convection is moving along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 18W-23W. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... At 07/0300 UTC, a stationary front stretches westward from a 1017 mb near 24N80W to 28N94W. Showers are near the low moving off the South Florida coast. Light to gentle winds are seen across most of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds off the northern Yucatan coast. Seas are up to 3 ft. A nearly stationary front will weaken Tue into Tue night. High pressure will build over the NE Gulf Tue and pass southward across the eastern Gulf through Wed night. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Coast Thu, move across the northern Gulf waters late Thu night and Fri, then stall and weaken Fri night into Sat. Southerly winds may strengthen across the eastern Gulf Sat night as low pressure develops over the SE United States. Elsewhere, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air associated with a mid- level ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to limit any convective activity over the basin. Some isolated showers are seen around Puerto Rico. A weak high pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a pressure gradient that supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere over the southern Caribbean. For the remainder of the basin, light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong speeds by this weekend. A low pressure trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands into Tue. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Tue night. Another round of northerly swell will impact these waters Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the Bahamas from 25N80W to 24N77W. Isolated showers are moving near this front. High pressure covers the rest of the western Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N74W. A trough is located in the central Atlantic from 29N34W to the USVI near 18N65W. An area of scattered thunderstorms is near the trough from 24N-32N between 33W-42W. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 27N24W, southwest of the Canary Islands. Weak low pressure near the Florida Keys, along with a stationary front over the Straits of Florida, will linger into Tue before dissipating Tue night. Lingering northerly swell over the NE portion will subside by Tue. High pressure off the SE U.S. coast will track SE across the offshore waters through Wed, then maintain a ridge across the southern waters through late week. SW to W winds will strengthen Thu over the northern waters, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the waters N of 22N late Thu night through Sat night. $$ AReinhart