000 AXNT20 KNHC 062224 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2154 UTC Mon Apr 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 11W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 00N to 04N between 18W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front stretches from near 27N92W to the southern tip of Florida. Moderate E winds are located N of the front, but have gradually been decreasing through today. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail except for just N and W of the Yucatan where fresh SE winds are being induced by a diurnal trough that has pushed W off the peninsula this afternoon. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build over the eastern Gulf Tue and dominate area weather into late week. A cold front is expected to drop southward and cross the northern Gulf late Thu night and Fri, then stall and weaken over the northern or central waters Fri night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak high pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a pressure gradient that supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere over the southern Caribbean. For the remainder of the basin, light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid- level ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to limit any convective activity over the basin. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters into late week, which will continue to support strong winds along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela, highest during the overnights. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras. A weakening stationary front or trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through Tue. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Leeward Islands through Tue, then subside by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is analyzed over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 29N42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within about 120 nm SE of this front. Strong winds and seas 12 ft or greater are generally found north of 26N between 45W and 55W. A weakening stationary front is positioned from the southern tip of Florida into the NW Bahamas, with some scattered showers being observed within 90 nm either side of the boundary. To the N of the boundary, moderate E winds are occurring to the W of 76W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N22W or about 210 nm SW of the Canary Islands. The stationary front in the vicinity of Florida and the Bahamas will dissipate by late tonight. Northerly swell generated by a complex low pressure system over the central Atlantic will produce large seas across the forecast waters tonight. Seas will subside Tue through mid-week as high pressure passes SE across the northern waters. A ridge will persist over the southern waters through Fri. A cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S. coast and across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. $$ KONARIK