000 AXNT20 KNHC 061006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 606 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed from the SW Gulf near 21N96W to 26N91W across the eastern Gulf to southern Florida. Overnight scatterometer data and recent buoy observations show moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the front over the northern Gulf, generally between 26N and 28N. Seas are running 4-6 ft in this area based on recent buoy reports. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail across much of the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a locally influenced trough. A stationary front extending from south Florida westward across the central Gulf along 25N-26N will linger today, then weaken and lift northward tonight. A western Atlantic high pressure ridge will build across the Gulf Tue and persist through mid-week. A cold front is expected to drop southward and cross the northern Gulf late Thu night and Fri, then stall and weaken over the northern or central waters Fri night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak high pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a pressure gradient that supports fresh to strong winds near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia this morning. Seas likely peak around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and over the southern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to limit any convective activity over the basin. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras. A weakening stationary front or trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands into Tue. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Leeward Islands through Tue, then subside by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh easterly winds to the north of a stationary front extending across southern Florida to the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a weakening stationary front is analyzed over the central Atlantic from 30N35W to the NE coast of Puerto Rico. GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate convection is occurring near the front north of 24N. Several overnight altimeter passes indicate large northerly swell persists south of complex low pressure over the north-central Atlantic. Strong winds and seas 12 ft or greater are generally found north of 26N between 45W and 55W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure near 26N25W. A nearly stationary front extending across south Florida to the NW Bahamas will weaken tonight into early Tue. Northerly swell generated by a complex low pressure system over the central Atlantic will produce large seas across the offshore forecast waters through tonight. Seas will subside Tue through mid-week as high pressure passes SE across the northern offshore waters. A high pressure ridge will persist over the southern offshore waters through Fri. A cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S. coast and across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. $$ B Reinhart