000 AXNT20 KNHC 060550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends continues from 06N17W to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm N and 190 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low is located in the west-central Gulf near 25N93W with a stationary front extending eastward to the SW Florida coast near 26N81W. A stationary front also extends south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Showers are seen along the E-W oriented stationary front and into South Florida. Low clouds cover the northern half of the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh ENE winds north of the E-W oriented stationary front and low. Light to gentle winds are south of the front. Fresh winds are along the Yucatan. Seas range from 2 to 6 ft. Low visibility due to smoke is possible across the the Bay of Campeche. The stationary front will persist overnight, then lift northward and dissipate on Mon. Fresh easterly winds north of the front will diminish overnight. A western Atlantic high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern and central Gulf through mid-week. A cold front may move southward over the northern Gulf late Thu night through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging is centered over Central America. Aside from scattered showers over Puerto Rico, the rest of the Caribbean remains dry. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds north of Colombia and Venezuela with fresh winds extending into the central and southeast Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted in the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate trades persist across the remainder of the basin. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft, with 9 ft seas north of Colombia. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through mid-week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela this week. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras. A weakening stationary front or trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands over the next couple of days. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Leeward Islands through Tue, then subside by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N35W to 25N49W to the eastern Hispaniola coast near 19N68W. A trough extends from 32N51W to 25N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-31N between 30W-53W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong cyclonic winds N of 25N between 44W-61W. Seas are up to 12 ft in this area. Surface ridging extends across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 25N28W. Northerly swell generated by a deep low pressure system centered north of the area over the central Atlantic will produce large seas across the forecast waters through Mon night. Seas will subside Tue through mid-week as high pressure moves SE across the northern waters. A high pressure ridge will persist across the central waters through mid-week. A cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S. coast and into the northern waters Fri and Fri night. $$ AReinhart