000
AXNT20 KNHC 052331
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2215 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W 
to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends continues from 05N18W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 180 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of 1013 mb surface lows are drapped along a stationary
front across the Gulf this evening. The front extends from the
west coast of Florida near 27.5N81W to low pressure near 26N92W to
low pres near 25N96.5W, then extends southward to just north of
Veracruz, Mexico along 20N. E to NE winds of 15-20 kt prevail
north of the front across the near and offshore waters of
Louisiana and Texas, then turn northerly around 15 kt to the west
of the front across the Mexican coastal waters. A broad band of 
scattered showers is occurring within 90 nm north of the front 
with a few embedded thunderstorms across the Texas coastal waters.
To the south, a surface trough has developed along the west coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N92W. 

The two low pressure centers will move east-southeastward and 
weaken through tonight, while pulling the western portion of the 
stationary front eastward into the west central Gulf, while the
remainder of the front drifts southward to SW Florida. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds behind the front will diminish as it stalls 
over the central Gulf tonight into Mon, then dissipates by Mon 
night. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic early this 
week, with a ridge to extend westward across the eastern Gulf 
through mid- week. Another cold front may move into the northern 
Gulf late Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Fair weather with limited shower activity is noted across the 
Caribbean this afternoon as dry and stable conditions dominate the
middle atmosphere across all but far SE portions. The pressure 
gradient between weak high pressure over the Bahamas and the 
Colombian low is driving strong tradewinds south of 13N across the
coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh winds are also 
noted over the Gulf of Honduras and through the Windward Passage.
Gentle to moderate trades persist across the remainder of the 
basin.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of 
this week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will continue pulsing each night over the 
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with locally higher seas will 
prevail along the coast of Colombia through the middle of this week. 
Long-period northerly Atlantic swell will continue moving through  
the waters east of the Leeward Islands and through the Caribbean
Passages of the NE Caribbean through Mon night, then subside 
through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary have drifted SW and into
the Jacksonville, Florida area this afternoon, and extend
southeast to near 25N70W. Broken to overcast skies and scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms aloft are spread across most of
coastal Florida from Palm Beach to the Jacksonville area and
extend eastward to near 77W. 

Broad and deep low pressure N of the area has shifted eastward
during the past 24 hours and was nearing 53W this evening.  
Northerly swell generated by this low will produce large seas of 7
to 12 ft across the waters east of the Bahamas tonight and then
slowly subside through Mon night. A cold front associated with the
deep low is nearly stationary across the central Atlantic, from
31N37W to the NW coast of Puerto Rico, and will drift SE tonight
through Mon and gradually dissipate. High pressure will move SE 
across the northern waters late Mon through Tue night, then 
maintain a ridge across the central waters through mid-week. 
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S. 
coast by late Thu night.

Farther east, a surface ridge prevails between the stalled cold
front and Africa, with a 1020 mb high centered near 23N31W. Fresh
to locally strong ENE tradewinds prevail across the tropical
Atlantic, to the south of 15N. The high will be nudged gradually
eastward of the next few days as the deep low pressure system
across the central Atlantic and north of the area continues to
shift ENE. 

$$
Stripling