000
AXNT20 KNHC 051732
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 
04N17W. The ITCZ extends continues from 04N17W to the coast of 
Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 
180 nm of the ITCZ. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 26N92W. A cold front extends 
from the low to 22N98W, then continues as a stationary front across 
northeast Mexico. A warm front extend from the low to 28N89W. Scattered
showers can be expected along the frontal boundaries. To the south,
a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 24N92W to 
19N94W. This feature is well depicted in model streamlines and in 
current observations. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh 
easterly winds across most of the basin. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are noted north of the low/front.

The low pressure system will move eastward and weaken through the day 
while pulling its cold front into the central Gulf. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds behind the front will diminish as it 
stalls over the central Gulf tonight into Mon, then dissipates by
Mon night. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic early
this week, with a ridge to extend westward across the eastern 
Gulf through mid-week. Another cold front may move into the 
northern Gulf late Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong 
winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Limited shower activity is noted in Caribbean radar imagery this
morning as a mid-level ridge prevails over the NW Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the Bahamas and
the Colombian low is driving fresh to strong winds near the coast
of Colombia. Fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf of Honduras 
and the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades persist across 
the remainder of the basin.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of 
this week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will continue pulsing each night over the 
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with locally higher seas will 
prevail along the coast of Colombia through the middle of this week. 
Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east 
of the Leeward Islands through Mon night, then subside through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb surface low is centered east of the Florida Peninsula near
29N81W, with a surface trough extending from 31N81W to 28N80W. Scattered 
showers are noted in the vicinity of the low mainly west of 73W. To the 
east, a stationary front extends from 31N38W to 18N68W. Scattered showers 
prevail within 165 nm east of the front.  

The deep low pressure N of the area over the west-central Atlantic will 
continue moving away from the forecast waters today, allowing winds to 
diminish over the basin. Northerly swell generated by this low will 
produce very large seas across the waters east of the Bahamas through
Mon night. The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight 
into early Mon. High pressure will move SE across the northern waters 
late Mon through Tue night, then maintain a ridge across the central
waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move 
off the SE U.S. coast by late Thu night. 

ERA