476 AXNT20 KNHC 042337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 737 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are expected over the northwest Atlantic this evening through early Sunday. A cold front, associated with a deep and complex low pressure system north of the area, will bring gale-force west to northwest winds to the waters north of 30N and between 61W and 66W. Wave heights in this area will range 16-18 ft. The associated low pressure center will shift ESE over the next 24 hours and weaken slightly. The associated wind and wave conditions south of 31N will diminish slightly by Sun morning, moving in tandem with the low/front. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force before sunrise Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11.5W to 05.5N15W, then transitions to the ITCZ from that point to 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front currently extends just offshore of the Texas coastline from the Texas-Louisiana border SW across the coastal waters to just north of Brownsville. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front, mainly north of 26N and west of 91W. To the southeast of the front, surface observations depict light to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin except north of the front, where fresh N to NW winds are expected to prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the SW Gulf. A weak high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward tonight, ahead of this cold front moving into the NW Gulf today. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W tonight, with fresh to strong N to NE winds expected behind the front. Wind gusts to minimal gale force winds may occur. The front will become stationary early Sun before it lifts back north as a warm front during the day Sun. High pressure from off the Carolina coast will slide southward early next week setting up an east to west ridge across the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin as a weak and narrow ridge extends SE across the Bahamas. Very dry air aloft is indicated by a strong subsidence signal in water vapor imagery dominating the west half of the basin. The exception is the E part of the basin along 15N-16N, where scattered to broken low clouds with possible showers are present. Late morning scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh east winds south of 16N to the east of 80W, with a small area of strong northeast to east winds along and near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate east winds elsewhere. Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. Long-period northerly swell moving through the Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages over the next few days will subside by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale warning currently in effect for the northwest Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 22N60W then become nearly stationary to northern Hispaniola near 19N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the cold front, while scattered showers are noted along the stationary front. High pressure prevails west of the front, to the west of 65W as a weak and narrow ridge extends from the SE U.S. to north of Hispaniola. A 1015 mb high pressure center prevails east of the front, centered near 23N37W. Morning scatterometer data depicted an extensive area of fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 26N and west of the front to 73W. Strong west to southwest winds were noted within 120 nm either side of the cold front to the north of 27N. In the far eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N13W to near 22N19W. Lack of atmospheric forcing due to dry sinking air aloft as seen in water vapor imagery, along with dust in this area of the Atlantic is suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity with this front. The front over the central Atlantic will slowly move southeastward and reach the northern Leeward Islands by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected north of 30N between 61W and 66W this evening till early Sun as a deep low pressure system located N of area shifts ESE, and passed just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday. High pressure will shift southward over the north- central waters Mon night into Tue. $$ Stripling