000 AXNT20 KNHC 041733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are forecast over a northwest Atlantic this afternoon and continue until early Sunday. A cold front, associated with a deep and complex low pressure system north of the area, will bring gale-force west to northwest winds to the waters north of 30N and between 61W and 66W. Wave height in this area will range between 15-18 ft. These conditions will shift east of the forecast waters by Sun morning following the low/front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 05N17W, then transitions to the ITCZ from that point to 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 260 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front currently extends along the Texas coastline from 30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front, mainly north of 25N and west of 91W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, extending from 23N94W to 19N95W. Surface observations depict light to gentle easterly winds across most of the basin except north of the front, where gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the SW Gulf. The weak ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the NW Gulf today. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front. Gusty winds to minimal gale force winds may occur. The front will become stationary before it lifts back north as a warm front Sun. High pressure from off the Carolina coast will slide southward early next week setting up an east to west ridge across the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin under very dry air aloft as indicated by the strong subsidence signal in water vapor imagery. The exception of the SE part of the basin including the coast of South America, where scattered to broken low clouds with possible isolated showers are present. Overnight scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh east winds south of 14N and between 61W-78W, and a small area of strong northeast to east winds along and near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate east winds elsewhere. Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. Long-period northerly swell moving through the waters around the Leeward Islands will subside early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale warning currently in effect for the northwest Atlantic. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic 31N46W to 20N66W to 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, with the highest concentration north of 22N. High pressure prevails west of the front, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N78W. High pressure also prevails east of the front, centered near 23N37W. Overnight scatterometer data depicted an extensive area of fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 27N and west of the front to 74W. Strong west winds are within 240 nm east of the cold front. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N13W to near 21N20W. Lack of atmospheric forcing due to dry sinking air aloft as seen in water vapor imagery, and along with dust in this area of the Atlantic is suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity with this front. The front over the central Atlantic will slowly move eastward to east of the Leeward Islands by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected near 30N64W from this afternoon till early Sun as a deep low pressure system located N of area drops southeastward passing just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. High pressure will shift southward over the north-central waters Mon night into Tue. 5294 ERA