000 AXNT20 KNHC 040516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM Sat Apr 04 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic tonight, and last through early Sunday. A cold front will produce gale force winds north of 30N between 53W-58W with seas 15-18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 04/0300 UTC, the front is located just west of Houston and just west of Corpus Christi, then crosses the Texas/Mexico border near 27N99W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is mostly inland over Texas, but starting to emerge into the NW Gulf, currently from 27N-32N between 94W-99W. Some scattered showers are seen over the central Gulf. This is due to abundant moisture seen on TPW imagery and upper-level diffluence in the area. Weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate easterly winds are noted over the western Gulf, except over the south- central Gulf due to the thermal trough from the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the southwest Gulf. Weak high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward through tonight in response to low pressure and an associated cold front that is advancing eastward over the central U.S. The front is expected to reach the Texas coast today, then become stationary before it lifts back north as a warm front Sun. This front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the far NW Gulf through tonight. High pressure from off the Carolina coast will slide southward early next week setting up an east to west ridge across the area. This will allow for generally light to moderate east to southeast winds over the basin through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs emerge off the Peninsula to across SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from 20N72W to 19.5N76W. Isolated showers are near the front and over Hispaniola. Dry air covers most of the Caribbean. Cloudiness and isolated showers are within 60 nm of the coast of South America, due to higher moisture content to the south, as seen on TPW imagery. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds south of 13.5N between 61W- 78W, with a small area of strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate winds are elsewhere south of 14.5N. Winds are 10 kt or less over the northern Caribbean, north of 14.5N. Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic beginning tonight. See Special Features section above. A slow-moving cold front reaching from 32N43W to 29N51W to 23N62W to 20N71W is associated with a complex low well north of the area off New England and the mid-Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front, mainly north of 29N and east of 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicate strong W to NW winds north of 29N between 62W-76W, with fresh winds elsewhere north of 27N between the cold front and 75W. Fresh SW winds are within 210 nm SE of the cold front, mainly north of 23N. N swell covers much of the central and western Atlantic, to the east of the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high centered near 23N43W is producing light to moderate winds in the 14N-24N latitude band across the entire Atlantic and Caribbean. In the far east Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 32N15W through the Canary Islands to 24N19W. The front is not producing any significant weather. The cold front extending from 23N62W to the Windward Passage will slowly move eastward to the east of the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale conditions are expected near 31N65W this evening and tonight as a deep low pressure system centered southeast of New England drops southeastward passing just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays. High pressure will shift southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas Mon night into Tue. It will then shift southeastward through Wed night as a cold front moves off the coast of Florida into the west Atlantic. The front will be preceded by increasing south to southwest winds and accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Hagen