000 AXNT20 KNHC 032305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2304 UTC Fri Apr 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic on 05/1200 UTC. A cold front will produce gale force winds north of 30N between 54W-56W with seas 16-18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N07W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-01N between 42W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf, with 1 to 3 ft seas. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No showers or thunderstorms are evident across the Gulf at this time. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be causing minor limitations to visibility over the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Texas coast Sat, then lift back north Sun. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the far northwest Gulf tonight through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs move to the northwest from the Peninsula over the Gulf. Otherwise, A weak high pres ridge over the northeast Gulf will generally support light to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh winds off the coast of central Honduras and the Bay Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are also likely off Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern is in place over the basin, supporting moderate trade winds. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in most area. Conditions remain fairly dry across the region, and no significant shower activity is noted. For the forecast, little change is expected through the early part of the week. Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic. See above. A stationary front reaching from 32N45W to the Windward Passage is associated with a complex low well north of the area off New England. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data indicates mainly fresh W to NW winds north of 27N between 60W and 70W. Buoys also show seas 8 to 10 ft, primarily in NW swell over this area and reaching farther south to 20N. A few showers are noted along the stationary front north of 28N. The front will begin moving slowly eastward by tonight and finally push to east of the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening the low pressure off New England passes just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays. Farther east, weak 1016 mb high pressure centered near 22N43W is maintaining light to gentle breezes from 15N-25N, with moderate to fresh SW winds north of 25N ahead of the front. Fresh to strong westerly winds follow a cold front moving into the Canary Islands. Moderate trade winds are noted over the deep tropics. 8 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 20N, primarily in northerly swell. $$ Christensen