331 AXNT20 KNHC 031036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30N to 01N40W and to south of the equator to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 30W-37W, and also north of the ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 04N44W to 04N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over northern Mexico. Latest and current satellite and radar imagery show isolated showers over portions of the northern Gulf, mainly north of 26N and west of about 85W. High pressure ridging over the NE Gulf will allow for moderate SE winds to exist over the basin through Sat night. A cold front is expected to just move offshore the Texas coast tonight into Sat, followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds on Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with this front. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as a thermal trough moves NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W to 20N77W, then to near 21N83W. The front has disrupted the sub-tropical ridge north of the area, resulting in lighter than usual trade wind flow across the basin. A few showers are possible over the waters between the front and Jamaica. The latest overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh winds in the southeastern and south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds are seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the basin. Fairly dry conditions persist across the basin under moderate subsidence aloft as depicted in water vapor imagery. Regional radar imagery continues to reveal isolated showers in the northern Windward Islands, and south of Cuba near the stalled frontal boundary. The front is likely to dissipate by late this afternoon. Light to moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as high pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh winds are likely to begin pulsing each night through the period beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are likely to pulse each night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to expand in coverage along the coast of Colombia at night starting on Sun and through Wed. Wave heights with these winds will reach to about 11 ft on Tue and into Wed. North swell is forecast to affect the northeastern Caribbean passages late today and through at least Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front associated to an intense and broad low pressure system well north of the discussion area extends to 32N49W, then to 25N60W and to just southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and to the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W. Broken to overcast mostly low clouds with possible isolated showers are noted along and within 60 nm northwest of the front. Fresh to strong winds are evident in overnight scatterometer data north of 28N between 48W- 77W. A warm front is analyzed from near 32N45W to 29N43W. The combination of this front with a swath of upper-level moisture advecting northeastward over it leading to small patches of rain along with isolated showers north of 30N and between 41W- 50W. Large N swell is moving through the area north of 24N between 49W- 78W. Overnight altimeter satellite data detected wave heights peaking at 11 ft east of northeastern Florida along 77W and north of 28N. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move eastward and reach from near 22N57W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as intense low pressure centered SE of New England pivots southeastward toward Bermuda. North swell generated by the low will produce very large wave heights across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays. Over the far eastern Atlantic a cold front extends from near 32N21W to 22N35W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are near and within 150 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N. The earlier observed areas of rain and scattered moderate convective activity observed along and east of this have since shifted east-northeast to north of 27N and between 10W-18W. Overnight altimeter satellite data showed wave heights in the range of 8-10 ft just ahead of this front and north of 27N. A weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed at 22N47W. This feature maintains a relatively weak pressure over this part of the Atlantic, with its associated weak gradient allowing for generally light to gentle winds from the vicinity of the ITCZ northward to 23N. The 1018 mb high center is forecast to retreat eastward through the weekend in response to the approaching central Atlantic cold front described above. $$ Aguirre