000 AXNT20 KNHC 030535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 39W-46W. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over northern Mexico. Satellite and radar imagery show scattered showers over portions of the northern Gulf, mainly north of 26N and west of 86W. High pressure ridging over the NE Gulf will allow for moderate SE winds to exist over the basin through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as a thermal trough moves NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 03/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the E tip of Cuba near 20N74W to 20N77W. The front continues as stationary from 20N77W to 20N81W, dissipating to 21N84W. The front has disrupted the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in lighter than usual trade wind flow across the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the SE and south- central Caribbean. Fresh winds are seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the basin. Fairly dry conditions persist across the basin. Regional radar shows isolated showers in the northern Windward Islands, and south of Cuba near the stalled frontal boundary. The front will dissipate by this afternoon. Light to moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as high pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh winds are likely to pulse each night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. N swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages late today through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N51W to 26N60W to the E tip of Cuba near 20N74W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Fresh to strong winds are evident in scatterometer data north of 28N between 48W-77W. A warm front from 32N48W to 31N47W is inducing scattered showers north of 28N between 40W-50W. Large N swell is moving through the area north of 24N between 50W-77W. For the forecast, the cold front that extends from 26N60W to the eastern tip of Cuba will move slowly E to extend from near 22N57W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as intense low pressure centered SE of New England pivots southeastward toward Bermuda. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N23W to 24N33W. Strong SW winds are near and within 150 nm ahead of the front, north of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 13W-21W. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate seas are 8 to 12 ft north of 25N. Weak 1018 mb high pressure is centered farther south near 20N50W. This is maintaining mostly light to gentle winds from 14N-23N between 25W-80W. $$ Hagen