000 AXNT20 KNHC 022131 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1910 UTC Thu Apr 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale center well north off New England will move southeast through Fri, reaching to just northeast of Bermuda by late Sat, before continuing due east through early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale force with seas building to 20 ft near 30N between 45W and 60W from Sat night through Mon morning as the low pressure moves eastward and gets absorbed into a larger low pressure area farther north. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-03N between 13W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered over Georgia is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across much of the eastern Gulf today, where recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations showed 10 to 15 kt. Buoys also indicated seas were 2 to 4 ft. Farther west, the scatterometer, buoy and platform data showed moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over northern Mexico and west Texas. Seas over the northwest Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Farther south light to gentle SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southwest Gulf. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident over the Gulf at this time. Visibility remains good with only minor smoke noted in the southwest Gulf due to agricultural fires. For the forecast, the high pressure over Georgia will continue to promote moderate SE winds over most the basin through Sat night. Fresh to occasionally strong SE return flow will persist in the northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse each evening N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula as a thermal trough moves NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to the Yucatan Channel. The front has disrupted the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in lighter than usual winds trade wind flow across the basin. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated mainly moderate winds off the coast of northeast Colombia, as well as parts of the southeast Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the basin. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in the south central and southeast Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Fairly dry conditions persist across the basin. Regional radar shows only isolated showers in the northern Windward Islands, and south of Cuba near the stalled frontal boundary. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Sat. Generally light to moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as high pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh winds are likely to begin pulsing each night starting Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale warning has been issued for the Atlantic. See above. A cold front extends from 31N55W to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are evident in scatterometer data along and just ahead of the front east of 65W. Fresh NW winds are noted north of 27N between 65W and 70W, where a concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas of 10 to 12 ft. These seas are due to NW swell moving into the area. Generally gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere west of 55W. For the forecast, the front will slowly shift east to eventually extend from 22N57W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as the intense low pressure centered southeast of New England pivots southeast toward Bermuda. N swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the region through the weekend, then seas will gradually subside as the swell decay early next week. Farther east, another deep low is centered north of the area, west of the Azores. An associated cold front is moving eastward north of 25N, followed by fresh to strong westerly winds. Various altimeter satellite passes indicated seas are 8 to 12 ft in north of 25N. Weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered farther south near 21N78W. This is maintaining mostly light to gentle winds across the tropical Atlantic waters, except for slight strong winds noted farther south near the mouth of the Amazon River off Brazil. $$ Christensen