000 AXNT20 KNHC 012328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2328 UTC Wed Apr 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... As of 01/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near 32N66W across the central Bahamas to NW Cuba. Intensifying low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull this front eastward across the waters through Thu night. Gale force SW winds and very large seas will prevail ahead of the front N of 27N this evening. Gale force NW gusts are expected behind the front over N waters through tonight. Gale force winds may develop over south of Bermuda Fri into early Sat as the associated low pressure system dives toward the southeast and passes just north of 31N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-03S between 35W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 01/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from NW Cuba to 23N89W where it transitions to a dissipating stationary to 24N97W. Winds south of the front are light and variable, while those to the north are N to NE moderate to fresh breeze. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. The cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel and pass southeast of the Gulf this evening. Associated winds and seas will diminish over the E Gulf tonight into early Thu. Winds and seas will remain relatively tranquil into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front may move off the Texas coast Sat, then stall over the N Gulf Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong low pressure system off of the mid-Atlantic has eroded the Bermuda High and displaced it well to the southeast. As a result, the very weak N-S pressure gradient is producing some of the calmest trades - light to moderate breeze - typically ever seen over the Caribbean. No significant convection is occurring over the Caribbean this afternoon. Winds and seas in the Caribbean will remain fairly tranquil through Sat, then freshen over the S-central Caribbean Sun into early next week. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Channel this evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri. Winds will freshen through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Fri night through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. As of 01/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near 32N66W across the central Bahamas to NW Cuba. A warm front - extending from the same low pressure as the cold front - is analyzed from 32N59W to 26N50W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of these fronts. Farther east, a weak cold front is present from 32N25W to 20N40W. While the front does not promote any strong winds, a trailing trough from 32N34W to 27N38W is associated with strong to near gale southwesterlies. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 27N between 28W and 38W. The intensifying low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull the strong cold front across the waters through Thu night. The associated low pressure system should dive southeast and pass just south of Bermuda. Northerly swell will produce large seas across the SW N Atlantic waters and east of the Leeward Islands through the weekend, then gradually decay early next week. $$ Landsea/Reinhart