000 AXNT20 KNHC 312349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2318 UTC Tue Mar 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A developing low pressure center over Georgia will move over the Atlantic tonight, bringing a cold front off the Florida coast with it. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop late tonight N of 30N, and progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by tomorrow night. Some SW gales may linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and 76W Wed into early Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area late Thu night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late tonight and and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N36W to Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 05N-04S west of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/2100 UTC a cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 29N88W to NE Mexico near 25N98W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the front east of 88W. 20 kt NE winds are west of the front. The NE Gulf has 20-25 kt SW surface winds ahead of the front. The southern Gulf has mostly fair weather. The cold front will move SE to exit the Gulf by tomorrow evening. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected this afternoon over the far NE Gulf and continue through the evening. Behind the front, strong NW to N winds are expected over the same area tonight and Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin late tomorrow, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trades cover the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the S coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. Low pres moving E from the United States mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc for the remainder of the week, allowing winds and seas in the Caribbean to subside. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Chanel Wed evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. The Bermuda High is weaker - 1015 mb - and displaced substantially farther south than usual at 21N60W. This is due to a complex system of thee lows situated from 35N-40N and between 40W-60W. One frontal boundary extends from the low over Georgia along around 32N to 55W. A second boundary begins as a warm front in our area at 32N52W, extending southeastward, and transitions to a dissipating cold front to 26N40W then to 30N35W. A third boundary is a cold front that extends from 32N30W southwestward to 16N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 30N west of 70W. Rapidly deepening low pressure currently over Georgia will head ENE from the Carolinas tonight. An unusually strong cold front for this time of year will push SE across the Bahamas tomorrow and tomorrow night to extend from near 25N65W to near the Windward Passage Thu. The front will eventually pass to the E pf Puerto Rico by Sun. $$ Landsea/McElroy