000 AXNT20 KNHC 311725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure will strengthen along the Georgia coast this afternoon, sending a cold front off the Florida coast by evening. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop tonight N of 28N, and progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by Wed night. Some gales may linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and 76W Wed into early Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area late Thu night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late Tue and and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N32W to Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 6N-5S between 32W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/1500 UTC a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana near 29N93W to S Texas near 27N97W. Isolated showers are within 30 nm of the front. 20 kt northerly winds are W of the front. Elsewhere, prefrontal isolated moderate convection is over the NE Gulf N of 29N. The NE Gulf has 20-25 kt SW surface winds. The southern Gulf has mostly fair weather. The NW Gulf front will move SE to exit the Gulf by Wed evening. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected this afternoon over the far NE Gulf and continue through the evening. Behind the front, strong NW to N winds are expected over the same area tonight and Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin late Wed, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the S coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica. More scattered showers are over E Honduras, E Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Low pressure moving E from the United States mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic for the remainder of the week, allowing winds and seas in the Caribbean to subside. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Channel Wed evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. A 1011 mb low is off the coast of South Carolina near 32N74W. A 1017 mb high is N of the Leeward Islands near 22N64W. Another 998 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 33N41W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N32W to 21N40W to 17N50W to 16N60W. A warm front is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to the Carary Islands near 28N16W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 27W-32W. The low off the coast of South Carolina will rapidly deepen and head ENE tonight. An unusually strong cold front for this time of year will push SE across the Bahamas Wed and Wed night to extend from near 25N65W to near the Windward Passage Thu. The front will eventually pass to the E of Puerto Rico by Sun. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop and seas will build tonight N of 28N and E of 78W, then expand E through Wed. NW gales are also forecast behind the front over the same area Wed and Wed night. The E Atlantic cold front will continue to move E through Thu. $$ Formosa