000 AXNT20 KNHC 311028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N Colombia and the Bermuda High will support gales early this morning. Seas will reach as high as 14 ft this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Lower pressure with strengthen along the Georgia coast this afternoon, sending a cold front off the Florida coast by evening. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop tonight N of 28N, and progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by Wed night. Some gales may linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and 76W Wed into early Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area late Thu night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late Tue and and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone coast near 09N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N23W to 00N48W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located within 120 nm of either side of these boundaries from the coast of Africa to Brazil, with the most concentrated areas of thunderstorms near the Brazilian coast. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered E of the area is dominating the Gulf this morning, creating gentle to moderate SE winds, with seas less than 5 ft, along with dry conditions. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early this morning, then move SE and out of the Gulf by Wed evening. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected to develop my midday over the far NE Gulf and continue through the evening. Behind the front, strong N winds are expected over the same area late tonight into Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin late Wed, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds into the E Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Low pressure over N Colombia is weakening this morning, which will allow the gales to end later this morning. Otherwise, moderate trades and dry conditions prevail over the Caribbean. With high pressure to the N weakening as it moves S, and low pressure over N Colombia weakening, the pressure gradient will relax as winds and seas will diminish through the central Caribbean today. Still, some strong winds are expected off the Colombian coast through early Wed, and fresh winds will pulse this evening in the Gulf of Honduras. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Chanel Wed evening, then stretch from near the Windward Passage to the Cayman Islands by early Fri, before stalling. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near the N Bahamas this morning, leaving gentle to moderate winds in place across most of the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N32W to just E of the Leeward Islands. Behind this front N of 27N between 35W and 45W, strong W winds and seas of up to 13 feet are being observed. Also, a cold front is stilling over the Canary Islands due to a high pressure centered near 25N24W. This afternoon, low pressure will strengthen along the Georgia coast, forcing a cold front off the SE U.S. coast tonight, as the low tracks NE. This front will reach just N of the Leeward Islands by late Thu, before becoming stationary. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop and seas will build tonight N of 28N and E of 78W, and expand eastward through Wed. NW gales are also forecast behind the front over the same area Wed and Wed night. $$ KONARIK