000 AXNT20 KNHC 301744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to support gales early this morning and again tonight offshore Colombia. Seas are likely to reach as high as 13 ft tonight and into Tues morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast by Tue with an attendant cold front crossing the area Tue night into Thu. SW gales are forecast to develop ahead of the front late Tue night N of 28N along and E of 77W, then spread E with time, as far E as 59W into Wed night. In addition, behind the front, W to NW gales may develop generally N of 29N between 60W and 70W Wed night into Thu morning. Seas of up to 15 ft will develop Tue night and continue through Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03N40W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm either side of both features E of 33W. A cluster of strong convection is along the ITCZ near the Brazilian coast from 05S-01S and W of 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... The warm front has lifted north of the Gulf across most of the Gulf coast states, with a small portion of the cold front off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers and clouds are moving across the northern Gulf. The mid-level ridge continues to be centered across the central and southern Gulf which is keeping conditions benign through those areas. A trough in the Bay of Campeche is noted from 25N94W to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh SE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche and portions of the western Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Wave heights range from 2 to 4 ft. A warm front will continue lifting northward and move inland later today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue and across the basin through Wed night. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf ahead of the front late Tue into Tue night. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds over the NE Gulf late Tue night into Wed. Then, winds and seas will diminish Wed night through the end of the week as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Scattered quick moving showers are located across much of the Caribbean early this morning. Strong trade winds are occurring north of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are occurring in the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage, with gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 7 ft are being observed over much of the central and SW Caribbean, and seas up to 9 ft near the Colombian coast. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing gales near the coast of Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Tue. This high pressure will weaken and move eastward Tue night into Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the region Wed through Fri night. The tail end of a cold front may cross the Windward Passage late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. A trough extends off the Florida coast in the western Atlantic from 31N78W to 27N80W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 27N72W. A cold front stretches from 31N39W to 24N45W to 21N59W. A dying warm front is noted from 31N60W to 23N57W. Strong to near gale force WNW winds are behind this front, with fresh moderate to fresh S winds ahead of the front. Seas are up to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of this front, mainly N of 26N between 31W and 38W. Farther east, a 1017 mb surface high is centered near 24N24W. To the N of this high, a cold front is sinking southward across the Canary Islands from 30N14W to 28N23W. The front transitions to a warm front from 28N23W and stretches northward to 31N31W. High pressure east of the Bahamas will drift S and weaken through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the far northern waters late tonight and stall early Tue, then lift N as a warm front later Tue as strengthening low pressure moves off the SE U.S. coast. This low will pull a strong cold front across the waters Tue night through late this week. Expect SW gales and building seas across the northern waters ahead of the front Tue night and Wed. Gales are also possible S of Bermuda Wed night behind the front. Elsewhere, northerly swell will propagate southward across the region Wed through Fri night. $$ AReinhart