000 AXNT20 KNHC 301038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Turks and Caicos Islands will continue to support gales early this morning and again tonight offshore Colombia. Seas are likely to reach as high as 14 ft this morning and again late tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast by Tue, with the attendant cold front crossing the area Tue night into Thu. SW gales are forecast to develop ahead of the front late Tue night N of 28N along and E of 77W, then spread E with time, as far E as 60W into Wed night. In addition, behind the front, NW gales may develop generally N of 29N between 60W and 70W Wed night into Thu morning. Seas of up to 15 ft will develop Tue night and continue through Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N18W to 00N43W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm either side of both features. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front that extends from near Mobile, Alabama to near Corpus Christi, Texas is beginning to transition into a warm front. To the S and E of the front, moderate SE winds are occurring over much of the W Gulf. A weak trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N93W to 19N94W. Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring between this trough and the Yucatan Peninsula. Wave heights are generally below 5 ft, except for some up to 7 ft to the NW of the Yucatan. High pressure has moved to the E of the Gulf this morning, but will continue to dominate weather into Tue. The front over the far NW Gulf will lift N as a warm front and move inland this evening. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue evening and cross the basin by Thu morning. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW winds are likely in the NE Gulf Tue afternoon and night. Behind the front, strong NW to N winds are possible over the far N Gulf early Wed. Looking ahead, moderate return SE flow should develop over much of the Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Scattered quick moving showers are located across much of the Caribbean early this morning. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are being observed over much of the central and SW Caribbean, higher over the aforementioned Gale Warning area. High pressure centered over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse during the evenings through Tue over the Gulf of Honduras. Thereafter, winds and seas will diminish across the region for the middle and latter parts of the week as high pressure builds over the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 26N68W. A cold front stretches from 31N39W to 22N54W to 27N61W, then transitioning to a warm front that extends up to 31N62W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front with seas up to 10 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of this front, mainly N of 23N between 33W and 39W. Farther E, a 1016 mb surface high is centered near 27N28W. To the N and E of this High, a cold front stretches just NW of the Canary Islands. The front then becomes stationary to 29N27W and NW to 31N33W High pressure in the west Atlantic will drift and weaken into mid-week. A cold front will approach 30N, W of 56W tonight, then stall through Tue night, before lifting as a warm front as low pressure develops off the SE U.S. coast. This low's trailing cold front will move east across the waters, bringing gale force winds ahead and behind it N of 28N between 71W and 58W from late Tue night into early Thu. Significant NW and N swell will bring seas to around 15 feet over this same area Wed into Fri. $$ KONARIK