000 AXNT20 KNHC 300524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off the coast of Colombia through at Mon night. Seas may reach near 14 ft by early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N29W to 02S44W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the basin from 30N88W to 26N97W, then continues south across northeast Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate winds in the vicinity of the front and across the western half of the Gulf. To the southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, from 24N96W to 19N96W. Significant wave heights are ranging between 3 to 5 ft across the basin, with 6 ft seas near the Texas coast and the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. High pressure over the far NE Gulf will weak and slide SE early this week. The stationary front will lift north as a warm front Mon and inland by Mon night. A cold front will move off the Texas coast late Tue and cross the basin by early Thu. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible in the NE Gulf Tue and Tue night. Then, behind the front, strong NW winds are expected over the far N Gulf Wed. Strong E winds just N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish overnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Quick moving showers are noted across the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off the Colombia coast and into the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds also extend northward to the southern coast of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Significant wave heights are ranging between 3 to 8 ft, with 9 ft north of Colombia. Gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. High pressure centered over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue over the Gulf of Honduras. Thereafter, winds and seas will diminish across the region for the middle and latter parts of the week as high pressure builds over the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 28N66W. To the east, a cold front enters our waters near 31N41W 25N49W to 25N57W, then becomes stationary from that point to 31N62W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front with seas up to 9 ft. Scattered showers are noted along and in the vicinity of the cold front mainly north of 25N between 38W-42W. A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 25N28W. A cold front is analyzed north of this high, extending from 31N16W to 28N22W to 29N29W. High pressure in the west Atlantic will move SE and weaken early this week. This will allow a cold front to approach the northern waters Monday evening then stall along 30N through Tuesday. Low pressure will then develop along this front just N of the area, causing the southern part of the front to accelerate east Tue night into Thu across the waters. Gale force SW winds are likely ahead of this front Wed N of 28N and E of 69W. Significant NW and N swell will bring seas to over 12 feet over this same area Wed into Fri. $$ ERA