000 AXNT20 KNHC 291749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off the coast of Colombia through at Mon night. Seas may reach near 14 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N between 06W-27W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen from 07S-04N between 32W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level high pressure is slowly pushing eastward as an upper level trough in the northern U.S. also pushes eastward. This is bringing a slow moving cold front to the NW Gulf, stretching from the coast of Mississippi near 30N89W to 28N95W. The front is lifting north as a warm front from 28N95W to Deep South Texas near 26N97W. A trough is also located in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 26N92W to 19N95W. NWS radar shows showers off the middle Texas coast north of the warm front. Ahead of the front, the latest scatterometer and surface observations showed gentle to moderate SE winds with moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front. Significant wave heights are 3 to 5 ft, with 6 ft seas near the middle Texas coast. A high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf will drift southward over the next couple days. A slow-moving cold front extending from SE Louisiana to just offshore of Brownsville, Texas will stall tonight, then lift northward as a warm front across the NW Gulf on Mon. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue and move across the basin through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop near the Yucatan coast this evening as a thermal trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Quick moving showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser Antilles in addition to southern Central America. The Colombian low is located just off the coast near 10N76W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trade winds off the Colombia coast and into the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades extend northward to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Fresh winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Significant wave heights are 3 to 8 ft, with 9 ft north of Colombia. Gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. High pressure centered over the SW N Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue over the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 29N66W. To the east, a cold front enters the waters near 31N46W to 27N55W to 30N63W. The front was lifting north as a warm front from 30N63W to 31N64W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front with seas up to 9 ft. A dying cold front is south of the main cold front from 30N44W to 24N55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and ahead of these boundaries from 24N-31N between 41W- 49W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 28N26W. A cold front is pushing southward in this area from 31N21W to 30N30W. High pressure centered over the NE portion near 29N66W will drift southward and weaken over the next few days. A cold front will move just offshore of the SE U.S. coast early Mon, then stall near or over the far NW portion through Tue. Strengthening low pressure is expected to move off the Georgia or South Carolina coast Tue night and accelerate E-NE through Thu while pulling a cold front across the offshore waters. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the front N of 27N Tue night and Wed, followed by increasing northerly swell late Wed through Thu. $$ AReinhart