000 AXNT20 KNHC 290520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gale winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia through at least Mon night. Seas may reach near 12 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered showers are noted along these boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf from southwest Florida to the north Texas coast. Recent scatterometer and buoy data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds from Yucatan to the coast of Louisiana, between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front currently extending along the Texas and Mexico coastlines. Buoy data is showing 5 to 8 ft seas over much of the western Gulf. Another area of moderate to fresh winds is noted in scatterometer data over the Florida Straits, mainly south of 25N and east of 85W. Farther south, a surface trough has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula extending from 22N88W to 20N91W. No significant convection is noted across the basin at this time. The cold front will move slowly SE through Sun morning, then stall Sun afternoon and retreat N as warm front Sun night into Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will affect waters off the N Yucatan coast Sun due to a surface trough over the peninsula. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue morning, then track across the N Gulf through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Earlier ship observations and scatterometer satellite data indicated strong to near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. A concurrent altimeter satellite showed seas to 9 ft in the area of strongest winds, although seas to 10 ft are likely a little farther downstream. Elsewhere, ship and buoy observations along with other scatterometer passes showed moderate to fresh trade winds. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. Regional radar showed the usual trade wind showers across mainly the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as a few near the ABC islands. A sharp upper trough reaches east to west from Puerto Rico to south of Jamaica, supporting a few showers and thunderstorms from west of the southern peninsula to Haiti to south of Jamaica. High pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Tue. Gale force winds will pulse along the Colombian coast each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near 29N67W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N47W to 25N55W to 19N69W. Fresh trade winds are ongoing mainly south of 22N to the coast of Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. A few fast moving trade wind showers are possible south of the high pressure going toward the southern Bahamas. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 28N30W. Farther east, an altimeter pass indicated an area of 6 to 8 ft seas between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands, related to northerly swell. The front over the central Atlantic should weaken and dissipate by Sun morning. High pressure centered midway between Bermuda and The Bahamas will remain nearly stationary or drift slowly S into the start of next week. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Mon morning, but stall just off the coast Tue, then weaken and dissipate by Tue night. Strong SW winds are expected N of 25N Tue night and Wed ahead of a strong cold front, which will usher in strong NW winds behind it N of 25N Wed through Thu night. $$ ERA