000 AXNT20 KNHC 261748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Gale force winds and seas up to 10 ft will begin to pulse north of Colombia by Fri evening, 28/0300 UTC. This is expected to end by Sat morning, 1200 UTC and will pulse again Saturday evening and Sunday evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or go to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N23W to 02S31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 200 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 07W-31W. There is an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of the ITCZ from 02N-06N between 23W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level ridge is centered over the western Gulf and bringing subsidence to the basin. A 1018 mb surface high pressure is analyzed near 26N86W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light winds in the eastern half of the Gulf with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Significant wave heights range from 1 to 3 ft. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters before dissipating tonight. High pressure will then build across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat evening, with a modest increase in winds and seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging extends into the western half of the Caribbean with a mid to upper-level trough stretching into the eastern Caribbean. At the surface, a trough is analyzed in the central Caribbean from 19N69W to 12N73W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this trough, notably from eastern Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, and Puerto Rico. Typical streamer showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Significant wave heights range from 3 to 6 ft. High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through early Tue. Minimal gale force winds are possible along coast of Colombia Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is sinking southward across the western Atlantic from 30N66W to 29N78W. The front stalls from 29N78W to the coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the cold front N of 30N between 64W-66W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds ahead of the front with moderate northwest winds behind the front. A trough is over the Bahamas from 27N76W to 23N78W. In the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 24N38W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is located near 26N20W with a trough along the low from 28N21W to 22N18W. A cold front will enter the NW waters today. The front will move SE across the waters north of 22N through Fri night before dissipating across the central Bahamas. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters tonight through Fri night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun. A weak cold front will move into the northern waters Mon. $$ AReinhart