000 AXNT20 KNHC 251759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 05N09W to 02N18W, where it transitions to ITCZ. ITCZ continues from that point to 00N33W and ends near the coast of Brazil, 00S49W. Scattered moderate convection along the monsoon trough is from 01N-05N and east of 19W and along the ITCZ from 03N-02N between 28W-36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted about 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ and west of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico is providing broad anticyclonic wind flow aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across southern Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh easterly winds are found off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, while moderate SW to W winds prevail across the northern coastal waters from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Broken to overcast low level clouds and areas of fog prevail across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters west of 87W. Area oil rigs report visibilities generally were ranging from 3 to 6 miles, with a few reporting 2 to 4 miles. This fog is expected to burn off today. High pressure will prevail through early Thu. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters Thu morning before dissipating Thu night. High pressure will then build across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is sinking slowly southward across the central and eastern Caribbean, extending from the W Atlantic across PR into central Caribbean. This pattern is producing sinking motion and stable conditions across the W Caribbean west of 70W, while enhancing showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a low level trough moving across Hispaniola and the eastern Caribbean. This trough will shift westward today and remain active over the waters north of 14N to the southern coast of PR and Hispaniola. ASCAT data indicates moderate easterly trades across the region with isolated area of fresh winds south of PR and Hispaniola. High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Minimal gale force winds are possible Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1005 mb low pressure moving off the Carolinas is inducing fresh to strong southwesterly winds north of 29N. A surface trough is noted in the western Atlantic extending from 31N75W to 26N79W. Scattered showers and tstorms are observed in the satellite imagery on the eastern side of the trough. Further east, a stationary front has stalled from 31N28W to 30N41W. A line of scattered showers continue along the boundary. ASCAT data this morning showed fresh northerly winds behind the front and light easterly winds to the south. A pair of weak troughs are noted in the eastern Atlantic, one south of the Canary Islands and the second trough from 25N22W to 19N26W. Both of these trough are very well depicted by the ASCAT. Scattered showers accompany both trough along the trough axis. Remainder of the basin is dominated by high pressure. High pressure will prevail through tonight. A cold front will move across the waters north of 22N late tonight through Fri night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun. $$ Torres