000 AXNT20 KNHC 250534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 9 feet, are present within 45 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 75W. The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down to less than gale-force on Wednesday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N13W, 04N17W, 03N19W, and 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W, and it passes across the Equator along 28W. The ITCZ continues in the area that is from 01S to the Equator, between 27W and 30W. The ITCZ crosses the Equator again, along 33W/34W, and it goes to 01N38W 01N44W, to 02N47W, and to 01N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 02N to 06N between 04W and 18W, from 01S to 01N between 28W and 32W, and within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 29N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near 28N83W, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, and then toward the border of the Deep South of Texas with NE Mexico. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and some fog are in the north central and northwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The visibilities generally were ranging from 3 miles to 6 miles. Some isolated cases consisted of visibilities that were in the range from 2 miles to 3 miles. High pressure, extending W across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Gulf of Mexico along 26N, will prevail through early Thursday. A weak frontal trough is expected to sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters on Thursday morning before dissipating on Thursday night. High pressure will build westward across the NE Gulf of Mexico, from Friday through Saturday, in order to produce fresh to strong return flow W of 88W. A cold front will move into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, with a modest increase in the wind speeds and the sea heights expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough cuts across the SE half of the Cuba, across Las Islas Santanillas of Honduras, toward central sections of Nicaragua. The 700 mb GFS model forecast shows an E-to-W oriented trough along from 13N to 15N between 61W and 70W. The 500 mb GFS model forecast shows a more NE-to-SW oriented trough in the same general area. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 12N to the SW corner of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 12N to 18N from 84W eastward, in broken low level clouds. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.40 in Guadeloupe. High pressure extending E-to-W across the W Atlantic Ocean, and into the Gulf of Mexico along 27N/28Nm, will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through this week. Minimal gale-force winds are expected offshore the coast of Colombia briefly tonight. The gale-force winds are possible again on Friday night, on Saturday night, and on Sunday night, as new high pressure moves across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N30W, to 31N32W. A stationary front continues in the central Atlantic Ocean, from 31N32W to 30N40W 30N50W, and 31N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to the SE of the cold front/ stationary front from 33W toward the east and northeast, continuing beyond 32N. Scattered to broken low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to the north of the stationary front. A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 22N to 30N. Precipitation: broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 20N northward between 60W and 63W. High pressure will extend westward, along 26N/28N, and into the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will build the seas offshore of Florida on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to move across the waters that are to the north of 22N, from late Wed night through Friday night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters from Thursday night through Friday night. New high pressure will move SE into the northern waters in the wake of the front late on Friday, and remain stationary through late Sunday. $$ MT