000 AXNT20 KNHC 242324 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0724 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean will increase to gale force along the coast of Colombia this evening and prevail through Wed morning. Significant wave heights will peak to 11 ft during the ongoing gales. Afterwards, winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force speeds at night through the rest of the week, possibly reaching gale force once again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western subtropical Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 00N16W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to 02S30W to 0N40W to 0N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05S to 07N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending from the SW N Atlc waters SW to the western Gulf continues to provide moderate to fresh return flow across the basin. Layered water vapor imagery show strong subsidence basin wide under the influence of a middle to upper level high. Atmospheric conditions aloft will prevail through Sat, thus supporting generally fair weather. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin. Fresh northeast to east winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate over the northern gulf Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. A middle level trough over the eastern Caribbean continues to support a surface trough currently moving over the Mona Passage. Deep layered moisture over the NE Caribbean supports scattered showers N of 15N E of 70W, including Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. The trough and associated shower activity will continue to move west and dissipate Wed morning near the Windward Passage. Ridging aloft will support fair weather over the NW Caribbean trough the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds dominate the central basin waters while gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere. A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through this week. Minimal gale force winds are expected offshore the coast of Colombia tonight and are possible once again Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night as high pressure builds over the sub- tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure dominates the sub-tropical Atlc waters. A stationary front traverses the ridge and extends along 30N36W to 30N50W with isolated showers likely within 45 nm ahead of the front. Fresh NE winds are ahead of the front to 29N with seas to 11 ft in NE swell. Isolated showers prevail N of Puerto Rico to near 23N being supported by a middle level trough. This shower activity will continue to drift westward to N of Hispaniola through Wed morning. A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters for the next several days. Fresh to strong southwest winds will build seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the waters north of 22N late Wed night through Fri night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters in the wake of the front. $$ Ramos